Understanding NFL Betting Spreads: A Comprehensive Guide for Savvy Bettors

Introduction

The NFL is a sport that captivates millions of fans around the world, and betting on NFL games has become a popular way to add excitement and potentially earn some extra cash. One of the most common types of NFL bets is the point spread. Understanding how point spreads work is essential for any aspiring bettor.

What is a Point Spread?

A point spread is a numerical value assigned to a game by sportsbooks that gives a handicap to one team and an advantage to the other. The spread is designed to level the playing field and make both teams more or less equal in terms of betting odds.

The favored team in a game will be assigned a negative point spread, while the underdog team will be assigned a positive point spread. For example, if the Buffalo Bills are favored by 7 points over the Miami Dolphins, the point spread would be Bills -7, Dolphins +7.

How to Read a Point Spread

Reading a point spread is simple. The number to the left of the team name is the point spread. The negative sign indicates the favored team, while the positive sign indicates the underdog team.

In the example above, the Bills -7 means that the Bills are favored by 7 points. If the Bills win by more than 7 points, their bettors win their bet. If the Bills lose by less than 7 points or tie, their bettors lose their bet.

The Dolphins +7 means that the Dolphins are underdogs by 7 points. If the Dolphins win outright or lose by less than 7 points, their bettors win their bet. If the Dolphins lose by more than 7 points, their bettors lose their bet.

Types of Point Spreads

There are different types of point spreads offered by sportsbooks:

• Standard spread: This is the most common type of point spread. It is a fixed number assigned to a game that does not change regardless of the betting action.
• Key number spread: This type of point spread is set at a key number, such as 3, 7, or 10. Key numbers are significant in NFL betting because they often influence bettors' decisions.
• Reverse spread: This type of point spread is flipped, with the favored team being assigned the positive point spread and the underdog team being assigned the negative point spread.

How to Bet on Point Spreads

To bet on point spreads, you need to choose which team you think will cover the spread. If you think the Bills -7 will win by more than 7 points, you would place a bet on the Bills -7. If you think the Dolphins +7 will win outright or lose by less than 7 points, you would place a bet on the Dolphins +7.

The amount of money you win or lose on a point spread bet depends on the odds offered by the sportsbook. The odds will vary depending on the perceived strength of each team and the amount of betting action on each side.

Tips for Betting on Point Spreads

Here are some tips for betting on point spreads:

• Do your research: Study the teams, their recent performance, and any relevant news that could impact the game.
• Understand the point spread: Make sure you know how to read and interpret a point spread before placing a bet.
• Consider the odds: Look for value in the odds offered by the sportsbook. Don't just bet on the team you think will win; bet on the team that offers the best betting value.
• Manage your bankroll: Set a betting budget and stick to it. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose.

Stories and Lessons Learned

Here are three stories about NFL betting spreads and the lessons we can learn from them:

• The underdog story: In the 2023 NFL season, the Indianapolis Colts were underdogs by 14.5 points against the Tennessee Titans. However, the Colts pulled off a stunning upset, winning the game 34-24. This shows that even big underdogs can cover the spread if they play well and the favored team has an off day.
• The key number trap: In the 2022 NFL season, the Los Angeles Rams were favored by 3 points over the Green Bay Packers. The spread was set at a key number, and many bettors were tempted to take the Packers +3 because they thought the Rams would win by more than 3 points. However, the Packers ended up winning the game 24-12, covering the spread and frustrating many bettors.
• The importance of late-game adjustments: In the 2021 NFL season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were favored by 6 points over the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Championship Game. The Rams were trailing by 27 points at halftime, but they fought back to tie the game in the fourth quarter. The Buccaneers ultimately won the game 30-27, but the Rams covered the spread thanks to a late-game surge.

Tables and Statistics

Table 1: NFL Point Spread Statistics (2023 Season)

Table 2: NFL Point Spread Key Numbers

Table 3: NFL Point Spread Odds

Step-by-Step Approach to Betting on NFL Point Spreads

Step 1: Choose a sportsbook

There are many reputable sportsbooks online, so take your time to find one that offers the best odds and promotions.

Step 2: Research the teams

Study the teams, their recent performance, and any relevant news that could impact the game.

Step 3: Understand the point spread

Make sure you know how to read and interpret a point spread before placing a bet.

Step 4: Set a betting budget

Set a betting budget and stick to it. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose.

Step 5: Place your bet

Once you have chosen a team to bet on, place your bet at the sportsbook.

Pros and Cons of Betting on NFL Point Spreads

Pros:

• Can be a profitable way to bet on NFL games
• Easy to understand
• Many different betting options available

Cons:

• Can be difficult to predict the point spread accurately
• Can be risky if you bet on the wrong team

Conclusion

Understanding NFL betting spreads is essential for any aspiring bettor. By following the tips and strategies outlined in this guide, you can increase your chances of winning your bets and making a profit.