Ukraine May Cost Trump the Election

The Ukraine Investigation: A Timeline

March 2019: Former Ukrainian Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, who had been fired by the Ukrainian Parliament in 2016, alleges that Vice President Joe Biden and Obama administration officials pressured Ukraine to fire him in order to protect Biden's son, Hunter, who was on the board of Burisma Holdings, a Ukrainian natural gas company.

April 2019: President Trump's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, begins investigating the allegations against Biden.

May 2019: Giuliani travels to Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky. Giuliani reportedly pressures Zelensky to investigate Biden.

July 25, 2019: President Trump speaks with President Zelensky by phone. During the call, Trump asks Zelensky to "look into" the Bidens.

August 12, 2019: A whistleblower complaint is filed with the Intelligence Community Inspector General (ICIG), alleging that President Trump pressured Ukraine to investigate Biden.

September 9, 2019: The ICIG forwards the whistleblower complaint to Congress.

September 24, 2019: The House of Representatives votes to open an impeachment inquiry into President Trump.

November 13, 2019: Public hearings begin in the House impeachment inquiry.

December 18, 2019: The House of Representatives votes to impeach President Trump on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

January 16, 2020: The Senate trial begins.

February 5, 2020: The Senate votes to acquit President Trump on both charges.

The Impact of the Ukraine Investigation on the 2020 Election

The Ukraine investigation has had a significant impact on the 2020 presidential election. According to a poll conducted by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist, 53% of Americans believe that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office. The investigation has also led to a decline in Trump's approval ratings.

Some experts believe that the Ukraine investigation could cost Trump the election. According to a study conducted by CNN, 63% of likely voters believe that Trump should be removed from office. The study also found that 72% of likely voters believe that Trump abused his power by pressuring Ukraine to investigate Biden.

Strategies for Trump to Mitigate the Impact of the Ukraine Investigation

There are a number of strategies that Trump could use to mitigate the impact of the Ukraine investigation on his reelection campaign. One strategy is to attack Biden and his son, Hunter. Trump has already begun to do this, accusing Biden of corruption and nepotism. Another strategy is to downplay the importance of the investigation. Trump has repeatedly called the investigation a "witch hunt" and a "hoax." He has also accused the Democrats of trying to impeach him for political reasons.

Conclusion

The Ukraine investigation is a major threat to Trump's reelection campaign. The investigation has damaged Trump's approval ratings and led to a decline in his support among likely voters. There are a number of strategies that Trump could use to mitigate the impact of the investigation, but it is unclear whether these strategies will be successful.

Tables

Table 1: Public Opinion on Impeachment

Table 2: Trump's Approval Ratings

Table 3: Impact of the Ukraine Investigation on Trump's Support Among Likely Voters

Table 4: Strategies for Trump to Mitigate the Impact of the Ukraine Investigation